In the future, we hope that more and more bloggers will use Election Predictor to create charts and maps for their websites. To show how this could be done, we thought we'd highlight a few bloggers and bring their predictions to life.
Daily Flute writes that "If all [other seats] less than 10% go, we’re looking at an ALP majority of 54 with 15 odd former ministers on the block, including: Howard, Turnbull, Pyne, Brough and Costello." To create a swing of 9.9%, we entered a Labor party two-preferred vote of 56.2% into the Election Predictor Split window, delivering this result. The Labor majority is 54 seats, just as Daily Flute predicts.
Meanwhile, Possum Pollytics claims the Coalition now considers seats held by a 10% margin to marginal. Here's what a 10% swing looks like in Election Predictor.
Corporate Engagement compares the way different newspapers reported on a poll that had Labor leading by 55/45, down slightly from previous highs. The result is still a wipe-out.
Fair Crack Of The Whip uses the "Sawford Crystal Ball" to predict a Coalition victory, because inflation is low and the incumbent always has an advantage. With a 4% swing to Labor, the Coalition retains its grip on power — just!
There are just a selection of the political blogs we're reading. Through the course of the campaign, we'll write about more of them.
And me? Well, I agree with Truepolitik
. My personal, non-expert view
is that the Coalition will claw back some of Labor's lead, but not enough to prevent a change of government.